2016 China LED lighting industry trend outlook



Key Analysis

In the third week of 2016, key stocks in the LED industry performed well. The industry index rose by 6.0%, and 22 key stocks in the industry rose by 20, with an average increase of 8.3%.

According to the statistics of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), in 2015, the LED application market in China is expected to reach 319.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%.

GGII believes that: In 2016, the LED lighting industry has entered a new era, and has transitioned from the previous replacement era to the era of universalization. Enterprises will gradually differentiate into large-scale brand enterprises, specialized brand enterprises and high-quality OEM brands. class.

High-tech observation

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Market review

This week's high-tech LED industry index this week, the high-tech LED industry index closed at 1387.9 points, up 6.0%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed at 3113.46 points, down 0.2%, the high-tech LED industry index performance is stronger than the broader market.

This week, 22 LED key stocks performed better overall, with an average increase of 8.3%. In addition to the suspension of Lehman Optoelectronics (300162), only Sanan Optoelectronics fell among the remaining 21 stocks, of which 20 stocks all rose, among which 7 stocks rose more than 10% in the week, and Weiwei shares (300317) rose the most in the week. , up to 27.4%.

2016 China LED lighting industry trend outlook

In 2015, China's LED application market is expected to reach 319.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and the application growth rate has fallen sharply. In 2015, the market demand for LED applications fell short of expectations. The market oversupply performance was obvious. The prices of LED chips and packaged devices all declined significantly. Some prices even reached the cost level of raw materials. The price of LED lighting products also declined significantly. The slowdown and increased competition have led to the disappearance of about 4,000 LED companies nationwide in 2015, especially downstream companies.

Although 2015 is quite difficult for LED companies, the LED industry market is still growing, and LED lighting is replacing traditional lighting applications. In 2015, the LED lighting business of China's lighting enterprises was further improved. Most enterprises accounted for 50% or more of the business. In addition to NVC lighting, the domestic LED lighting business accounted for more than 50%.

The LED lighting industry has entered a new era, and has transitioned from the previous replacement era to the era of universalization. Lighting companies in the era of universalization need to clearly plan product classification, establish sales channels, improve resource integration, and strengthen brand building. These four types of hard work colleagues, enterprises have gradually formed a differentiation in the positioning, mainly differentiated into three types of enterprises: large-scale brand enterprises, specialized brand enterprises, high-quality OEM brands, and the above positioning is not suitable for small and medium-sized lighting Enterprises, their future market is forced to withdraw in addition to being merged and merged, or it is difficult to survive in the small and micro market.

In 2015, although the demand for LED lighting continued to increase, the replacement of traditional lighting was further improved, but the slowdown in demand and the oversupply of the market coupled with the extremely unregulated commercial competition in the industry caused the price of LED lamps to fall by 30-50%. Thousands of companies have lost money or even withdrawn from the market. Looking forward to 2016, the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) believes that China's LED lighting industry will present the following developments:

1. Increase in speed. It is expected that the international economy will continue to show a downturn in 2016, LED demand is still insufficient, and the LED industry will continue to grow in the future. However, the oversupply situation in the LED market will improve with the decrease in investment in expansion, and the price of the product will also be attributed to rationality. Therefore, the growth rate of the LED industry is expected to slow down in 2016, but the slowdown has declined.

2. Mergers and acquisitions. Mergers and acquisitions have not been the specialty of lighting companies. The main demand for lighting companies is brands and channels. These two points have no common acquisition targets in the domestic domestic market. Therefore, in 2016, China's LED lighting industry and M&A will mainly be carried out to overseas lighting brands and overseas distribution channels, mainly by acquiring international lighting brands and local brands in overseas markets, supplemented by or integrated with local channels in overseas markets. The domestic market and major overseas markets are currently very competitive. In 2016, LED lighting companies will mainly engage in other areas that have not yet been fully opened through mergers and acquisitions, in order to get rid of the Red Sea market.

3. Capital. Competition is intensifying, SMEs are seeking a way out, and bankruptcy is a helpless move. Many companies have strengthened their competitiveness through other means. The cooperation in seeking new capital for the new three boards has become the choice of many companies. In 2015, more than 60 LEDs. Related companies log in to the new three boards, of which LED lighting applications accounted for 65%. It is expected that the enterprises that seek to participate in capital cooperation in the New Third Board in 2016 will further increase.

4. Exit. In 2016, LED prices will continue to decline. The large-scale production cost advantage and resource advantages of large enterprises will become more and more prominent. The loss pressure of small and medium-sized LED lighting enterprises will be more and more large. It is expected that in 2016, small and medium-sized lighting enterprises will still be China's LED lighting industry. Theme song.

5. New areas. The general lighting market is fiercely competitive, prices continue to decline, and demand market growth is slowing down, and corporate competitive pressures continue to increase. Many LED companies are eyeing new special applications to increase profits. With the technological level and the continuous maturity of solutions, the fields of agricultural lighting, health lighting and intelligent lighting will usher in a rapid development opportunity.

Analyst:

Name: Li Shengfa

Email: sf.

phone

GGII latest industry research report:

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High-tech LED industry research weekly report (20160118~20160122)

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