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Although the Global Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) and professional market regulator Gartner have successively lowered the growth rate of the global semiconductor industry in 2007, the low single-digit growth rate in 2007 has become the consensus of the industry. However, for the semiconductor boom in 2008, It is very likely that the wood will be in the spring. The Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) said on August 30 that not only WSTS and Gartner are expected to grow by 10.2% and 8.7% in 2008, TSIA also expects the semiconductor industry to grow by about 10.2% in 2008, and does not rule out reproduction. The peak of the economy, however, the impact of factors such as oil prices, Vista, digital TV (DTV) products and the Olympic effect is still worthy of follow-up attention.
TSIA said that many professional market regulators have lowered the growth rate of the global semiconductor industry in 2007. Various institutions have a conservative view on 2007. For example, WSTS will reduce the growth rate in 2007 to only 2.3%. Gartner will also be the semiconductor industry in 2007. The growth rate was revised down from 6.4% to 2.5%. However, for 2008, WSTS is expected to be the peak period of the semiconductor boom cycle, with a growth rate of 10.2%; similarly, Gartner is also expected to have a growth rate of 8.7% in 2008, and various market regulators for 2008 The economy is highly anticipated.
However, will 2008 become another high point of semiconductor boom, and there are still several factors that need to be observed in the big environment, including the US presidential election usually accompanied by higher economic growth rate, and the 2008 Olympics driving the growth of the Chinese mainland market, and Diverse products such as digital TV and Microsoft's Vista operating system are gradually fermenting. TSIA believes that the Vista effect does not occur in a short period of time, but it will take three to five years to gradually emerge, and Vista will become the mainstream of the market. In 2007, the PC growth rate should still be 12%, and digital TV shipments are expected to increase. To 100 million units.
TSIA pointed out that although key products are still driving the growth of the electronics industry, the overall environmental economic situation is still worthy of attention, including US consumer spending is expected to weaken, and in 2007 it is likely to be less than 2%, while Japan's economic growth The rate has also shown signs of weakness since the second quarter, with a growth rate of 1%. In addition, due to higher crude oil prices, the US producer price index (PPI) in the second quarter increased by 3.1% to 3.9% with the fluctuation of oil prices, compared with consumption. The price index (CPI) is also high from 2.6% to 2.7%.
TSIA estimates that the output value of IC industry in Taiwan is expected to increase by 9.7% in 2007, which is slightly revised downward from the original forecast of 10%. The main reason is that IC production in Taiwan has experienced negative growth in the first and second quarters, and it will return to positive in the second half of 2007. The growth track is estimated that the IC production value in Taiwan will reach NT$2 trillion for the first time in 2010.
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