The new energy vehicle market broke out to drive the lithium battery industry chain

At present, only the new energy vehicles, SUV vehicles, lithium battery industry chain, and the aftermarket market are showing bright spots in the auto market. The adjustment structure has become the focus of the industry's main tone and policy, and the car companies have accelerated the layout of new energy vehicles and related industrial chains.

Heavy structure

The State Council executive meeting held on September 29 decided to implement a preferential policy of halving the vehicle purchase tax for passenger cars of 1.6 liters or less from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016. This policy has spurred the sluggish auto market, and the market began to speculate whether the domestic auto market can greet the Jedi as it did in 2009.

In January 2009, in response to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state introduced a preferential tax on automobile purchase tax. From January 20th to December 31st, 2009, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 5% for passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below. Benefiting from the preferential tax on purchase tax at that time, China's automobile sales in 2009 reached 13.64.48 million units, an increase of 46.15% year-on-year. It became the world's largest automobile production and sales country and ushered in a golden period of development.

However, CSC Securities pointed out that the introduction of this policy is based on the needs of the government to support the macro economy, which exceeds the expectation of increasing subsidies for traditional fuel-efficient vehicles, indicating that automobile consumption is still the direction of policy encouragement and support. However, compared with the stimulus policy of halving the purchase tax in 2009, it is expected that this policy will have a limited increase in sales and profitability of car companies. In terms of sales volume, the purchase tax halving policy is conducive to lower vehicle prices and stable demand. However, this year's low sales growth has a strong relationship with the growth of the central government and income expectations. It is difficult for the macro economy to achieve V-shaped reversal under the same stimulus as in 2009. The short-term resident sector expects that the improvement opportunities are small, and in the context of the growth of the growth hub, there is little chance of a significant improvement in demand growth. In terms of profitability, the overall profitability of the 1.6L and below models is low. Under the current competitive situation and the matching of production capacity (has been changed from a tense in 2009 to a loose one), it is expected that the subsidy will benefit more consumers and manufacturers. The benefits are limited.

CITIC Securities believes that under the background of the domestic economy entering a new normal, the domestic auto market will achieve a slight increase, no increase, or even negative growth this year. This is a major probability event, and the restructuring will become the main tone of the domestic auto market for a long time to come. It will be the focus of policy.

In fact, the State Council executive meeting on September 29 also decided to improve the support policy for new energy vehicles, support research and development of power batteries and fuel cell vehicles, launch pilot demonstrations of intelligent networked vehicles, and speed up the elimination of operational yellow-label vehicles, and carry out clean-up and rectification projects. action. The meeting held that promoting the development of new energy and small-displacement vehicles and eliminating excessive emission of vehicles will help alleviate energy and environmental pressures, promote the optimization of automobile industry structure and upgrade consumption, and foster new economic growth points.

Increased performance differentiation

New energy vehicles, SUVs, lithium battery industry chains, and the aftermarket have become the highlights of the entire auto market, and the performance differentiation of listed companies in automobiles and auto parts has further intensified.

Thanks to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles and the continued sales of SUV models, the performance of related listed companies is still growing against the trend. BYD expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters to be 1.9 billion to 2.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 388.54%-434.83%. According to the company, “Qin”, a plug-in hybrid vehicle that is expected to be popular in the market in the third quarter, will continue to sell well. With the gradual release and promotion of production capacity, the newly-inserted plug-in hybrid SUV model “ The sales of Tang will also increase steadily, and orders for public transportation and special vehicles will also be accelerated. The Group's new energy vehicle business will continue to maintain a good momentum of rapid growth.

Driven by the rapid volume of new energy vehicles, the performance of listed companies in the lithium battery industry chain is also experiencing explosive growth. Taking polyfluoride as an example, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters to be between 18 million yuan and 22 million yuan, a sharp turnaround. The company said that due to the tight market of power lithium battery, the company's production scale has been continuously expanded, and the business operation has gradually improved, and the transformation and upgrading have achieved remarkable results.

Layout new energy

New energy vehicles are seen as “secondary rockets” that boost performance. In the third quarter, many listed companies have accelerated their deployment in new energy vehicles and related industrial chains.

According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, from January to August, new energy vehicles produced 118,020 units and sold 108,654 units, up 2.6 times and 2.7 times respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles completed 74,727 units and 68,316 units, respectively, an increase of 2.9 times and 3.4 times respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles completed 43,293 and 40,338 units respectively, an increase of 2.1 times and 2 times.

In the context of the triumph of new energy vehicles, a number of passenger car listed companies have accelerated their deployment in the new energy vehicle market. Great Wall Motor has launched a huge new energy vehicle plan. The company plans to raise 12 billion yuan, of which 9.5 billion yuan will be used for new energy vehicle projects (including power systems, motor systems, transmission projects). Jianghuai Automobile also released a fixed plan of 4.5 billion yuan on July 22. Among them, the new energy passenger car and core parts construction project plans a total investment of 2.373 billion yuan, the project construction period is 24 months, after the completion of the project, It will produce a new energy passenger vehicle with a single shift of 100,000 vehicles/year, a power battery assembly of 150,000 sets/year, and a motor-controlled production capacity of 150,000 sets/year.

The outbreak of new energy vehicles has also driven the entire new energy vehicle industry chain, especially the most critical lithium battery segment. The market expects that the demand for power lithium batteries will exceed 13 million kwh in 2015, with a growth rate exceeding 100%. According to the reporter's incomplete statistics, at least 18 listed companies have invested heavily in lithium battery projects this year, with an investment of over 50 billion yuan. In the third quarter, a number of listed companies further increased the lithium battery industry chain, and this year's lithium battery industry chain investment further pushed to the climax. On the evening of August 31st, the southeast announced that the total amount of funds raised for non-public issuance will not exceed 2 billion yuan. The funds raised will be used for the “annual production of 750 million Ah lithium-ion energy storage power battery construction project” after deducting the issuance expenses. Lithium-ion car energy storage power batteries are all sold externally. Listed companies such as Del Home, Chengfei Integration, and Lekai Film have also invested in the lithium battery industry chain in the third quarter.