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eMarketer has revised its projection for U.S. television advertising spending, citing stronger-than-expected cable TV bookings as a key factor. This year, U.S. TV ad spending is expected to rise by just 0.5% to $71.65 billion, down from the earlier forecast of $72.72 billion in Q1 2017. As a result, television's share of total U.S. media ad spending will fall to 34.9%, and eMarketer anticipates it will drop below 30% by 2021.
The slowdown in TV ad growth is partly due to the fact that 2016 benefited from major events like the Olympics and the U.S. presidential election. However, traditional TV ad sales have struggled as audiences increasingly shift their time and attention to live streaming and OTT platforms.
In addition, eMarketer has updated its forecast for cable TV subscribers between 2017 and 2021. It now predicts that the number of people canceling their cable subscriptions by 2021 will be nearly equal to those who have never subscribed at all. This trend is particularly noticeable among adults over 18, with an estimated 22.2 million people cutting the cord this year—a 33.2% increase compared to previous estimates. Meanwhile, the number of people who have never had cable is rising, reaching about 34.4 million, or a 5.8% increase, driven largely by younger audiences moving toward online video services.
eMarketer also forecasts that 196.3 million U.S. adults will watch pay TV this year, including cable, satellite, and telecom services—an overall 2.4% decline from 2016. By 2021, pay-TV users are expected to drop by almost 10%. While viewers over 55 continue to grow, other age groups are seeing significant declines.
Moreover, American adults are spending less time watching traditional TV. This year, daily TV viewing dropped by 3.1% to 3 hours and 58 minutes, marking the first time it fell below four hours per day. In contrast, online video consumption is on the rise. U.S. adults now spend an average of 1 hour and 17 minutes per day watching online videos, up 9.3% from the previous year.
These shifts reflect a broader transformation in how Americans consume media, with digital platforms gaining more traction and traditional TV struggling to keep pace. The future of TV advertising looks increasingly uncertain, with more focus shifting to digital and streaming services.