2013 is a key year for the development of the LED industry. The LED industry will show an explosive growth stage from 2014 to 2015. Lance Zheng, director of technology marketing for Marvell Green Technologies, analyzed this year's LED lighting market and technology trends.
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The main development trend of LED lighting
LanceZheng talked about his views on LED lighting market and innovation direction from LED residential lighting and commercial lighting. He believes that the development trend of civil lighting mainly has the following aspects:
1. The price continues to drop to a reasonable level.
In 2012, the overall cost of LED lighting showed a rapid downward trend. For example, LED bulbs that can replace 60W incandescent lamps have been reduced. The retail price has dropped from US$40/2011 to US$20/only, and will drop to US$10 in 2013/ Only, and by 2015 is expected to reach 5 to US dollars / only the replacement threshold price.
2. The market has changed from non-dimming to dimming.
Because of the difference in cost, the difference between non-dimming bulbs and dimming bulbs is getting smaller and smaller, and the main product difference is driving. Marvell's solution is a combination of dimming and non-dimming, which costs about 20% of the total, so this has pushed the industry to diversify. In the United States, all major industry players have turned to dimming. Since last year, Philips has come out with a wireless dimmable combination, the price is relatively high (the retail price is about 200 US dollars), but the market reflects very good.
3. The prospect of wireless dimming drive technology is considerable.
In the field of commercial lighting, LanceZheng mainly talked about two trends. The first point is that the popularization of the industry is accelerating, and the proportion of conversion to LED lamps is getting higher and higher. For example, the Wal-Mart supermarket in the United States has fully adopted LED lighting, and the market return period of Cree's commercial lighting products has been shortened from three years to one year. . The second point is that digital dimming based on the DALI standard is beginning to gain popularity. Lance said that digital dimming technology has been popularized since its invention in Europe 10 years ago, and the application market has shifted from Europe to Asia. 90% of the global LED lighting products are produced in China, while Shenzhen has 3,000 lighting manufacturers with unlimited business opportunities.
Popular roadblocks: price, volume, compatibility, consumer willingness
However, the popularity of LED lighting also needs to overcome the challenges of cost, size, compatibility with existing lighting systems (primarily dimming), and consumer willingness. From the cost point of view, the price of light source has dropped more in the past two years, from 3-4 US dollars per thousand lumens in 2011 to 2 US dollars in 2012, but the innovation of driver chips is slow, the current cost of dimming driver chips is 2 -3 dollars.
In terms of volume, the trend of thinning the power supply also requires a smaller size of the LED driver. The most popular light bulb in Japan is the E17, which is very small in size. It is very difficult to put the LED driver electronics into it. The more popular GU10 specification bulbs in Europe and America, the integrated dimming drive is very difficult, so the profit is relatively high.
In terms of compatibility, since LED lighting uses current driving mode, and existing dimmers are mostly voltage dimming, in terms of compatibility, the smoothness, dimming range, and flicker-free challenges are also considerable.
In addition, LED bulbs are expensive compared to incandescent lamps, so consumer expectations are of course high. LED lighting products need to provide consumers with a unique sensory experience with driver IC dimming technology. Therefore, in addition to lighting quality, some special functions such as adjustable color temperature (manufacturing situation), support... and flat dimming are key factors in the consumer's will. 